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18 December 2018

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Int J Med Sci 2015; 12(4):354-361. doi:10.7150/ijms.11694

Research Paper

Predicting One-Year Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Analysis of the China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry

Xue-Ying Cao1#, Jian-Hui Zhou1#, Guang-Yan Cai1, Ni-Na Tan1, Jing Huang1, Xiang-Cheng Xie1, Li Tang1,✉, Xiang-Mei Chen1,✉

1. Department of Nephrology, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Chinese PLA Institute of Nephrology, State Key Laboratory of Kidney Diseases, National Clinical Research Center for Kidney Diseases, Beijing 100853, China.
# Both of Xue-Ying Cao and Jian-Hui Zhou are first author of this study. They contributed equally.


This study aims to investigate basic clinical features of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, their prognostic risk factors, and to establish a prognostic model for predicting their one-year mortality. A national multi-center cohort study was performed. A total of 5,405 new PD cases from China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry in 2012 were enrolled in model group. All these patients had complete baseline data and were followed for one year. Demographic and clinical features of these patients were collected. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze prognostic risk factors and establish prognostic model. A validation group was established using 1,764 new PD cases between January 1, 2013 and July 1, 2013, and to verify accuracy of prognostic model. Results indicated that model group included 4,453 live PD cases and 371 dead cases. Multivariate survival analysis showed that diabetes mellitus (DM), residual glomerular filtration rate (rGFR), , SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independently associated with one-year mortality. Model was statistically significant in both within-group verification and outside-group verification. In conclusion, DM, rGFR, SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independent risk factors for short-term mortality in PD patients. Prognostic model established in this study accurately predicted risk of short-term death in PD patients.

Keywords: End-stage renal disease, peritoneal dialysis, prognosis, short-term mortality, Cox model

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY-NC) License. See for full terms and conditions.
How to cite this article:
Cao XY, Zhou JH, Cai GY, Tan NN, Huang J, Xie XC, Tang L, Chen XM. Predicting One-Year Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Analysis of the China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry. Int J Med Sci 2015; 12(4):354-361. doi:10.7150/ijms.11694. Available from