19 June 2013

ISSN 1449-1907

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International Journal of Biological Sciences

Journal of Cancer

Theranostics

Journal of Genomics

Int J Med Sci 2013; 10(4):382-384. doi:10.7150/ijms.5689

Short Research Communication

Epidemiological Determinants of Successful Vaccine Development

Hiroshi Nishiura^1,2✉, Kenji Mizumoto^1,3

1. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China.
2. PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.
3. Department of International Health, Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical Medicine and GCOE, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523 Japan.

Abstract

Epidemiological determinants of successful vaccine development were explored using measurable biological variables including antigenic stability and requirement of T-cell immunity. Employing a logistic regression model, we demonstrate that a high affinity with blood and immune cells and pathogen interactions (e.g. interference) would be the risk factors of failure for vaccine development.

Keywords: Vaccination, epidemiology, infectious disease, immunization, statistical model.