Int J Med Sci 2013; 10(4):382-384. doi:10.7150/ijms.5689

Short Research Communication

Epidemiological Determinants of Successful Vaccine Development

Hiroshi Nishiura1,2✉, Kenji Mizumoto1,3

1. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Level 6, Core F, Cyberport 3, 100 Cyberport Road, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China.
2. PRESTO, Japan Science and Technology Agency, 4-1-8 Honcho Kawaguchi, Saitama, 332-0012 Japan.
3. Department of International Health, Nagasaki University Institute of Tropical Medicine and GCOE, 1-12-4 Sakamoto, Nagasaki, 852-8523 Japan.


Epidemiological determinants of successful vaccine development were explored using measurable biological variables including antigenic stability and requirement of T-cell immunity. Employing a logistic regression model, we demonstrate that a high affinity with blood and immune cells and pathogen interactions (e.g. interference) would be the risk factors of failure for vaccine development.

Keywords: Vaccination, epidemiology, infectious disease, immunization, statistical model.

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How to cite this article:
Nishiura H, Mizumoto K. Epidemiological Determinants of Successful Vaccine Development. Int J Med Sci 2013; 10(4):382-384. doi:10.7150/ijms.5689. Available from