Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model

Hirata, Risa; Katsuki, Naoko E.; Yaita, Shizuka; Nakatani, Eiji; Shimada, Hitomi; Oda, Yoshimasa; Tokushima, Midori; Aihara, Hidetoshi; Fujiwara, Motoshi; Tago, Masaki

doi:10.7150/ijms.92837

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Int J Med Sci 2024; 21(8):1378-1384. doi:10.7150/ijms.92837 This issue Cite

Research Paper

Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model

Risa Hirata¹, Naoko E. Katsuki¹, Shizuka Yaita¹, Eiji Nakatani², Hitomi Shimada³, Yoshimasa Oda⁴, Midori Tokushima¹, Hidetoshi Aihara¹, Motoshi Fujiwara¹, Masaki Tago^1✉

1. Department of General Medicine, Saga University Hospital, Saga, Japan.
2. Graduate School of Public Health, Shizuoka Graduate University of Public Health, Shizuoka, Japan.
3. Shimada Hospital of Medical Corporation Chouseikai, Saga, Japan.
4. Department of General Medicine, Yuai-Kai Foundation and Oda Hospital, Saga, Japan.

Citation:

Hirata R, Katsuki NE, Yaita S, Nakatani E, Shimada H, Oda Y, Tokushima M, Aihara H, Fujiwara M, Tago M. Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model. Int J Med Sci 2024; 21(8):1378-1384. doi:10.7150/ijms.92837. https://www.medsci.org/v21p1378.htm

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Abstract

Background: Predicting fall injuries can mitigate the sequelae of falls and potentially utilize medical resources effectively. This study aimed to externally validate the accuracy of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model (SFIRM), consisting of six factors including age, sex, emergency transport, medical referral letter, Bedriddenness Rank, and history of falls, assessed upon admission.

Methods: This was a two-center, prospective, observational study. We included inpatients aged 20 years or older in two hospitals, an acute and a chronic care hospital, from October 2018 to September 2019. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by calculating the area under the curve (AUC), 95% confidence interval (CI), and shrinkage coefficient of the entire study population. The minimum sample size of this study was 2,235 cases.

Results: A total of 3,549 patients, with a median age of 78 years, were included in the analysis, and men accounted for 47.9% of all the patients. Among these, 35 (0.99%) had fall injuries. The performance of the SFIRM, as measured by the AUC, was 0.721 (95% CI: 0.662-0.781). The observed fall incidence closely aligned with the predicted incidence calculated using the SFIRM, with a shrinkage coefficient of 0.867.

Conclusions: The external validation of the SFIRM in this two-center, prospective study showed good discrimination and calibration. This model can be easily applied upon admission and is valuable for fall injury prediction.

Keywords: Accidental Falls, Accidental Injuries, Validation Studies, Logistic Models, Risk Factors

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APA

Hirata, R., Katsuki, N.E., Yaita, S., Nakatani, E., Shimada, H., Oda, Y., Tokushima, M., Aihara, H., Fujiwara, M., Tago, M. (2024). Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model. International Journal of Medical Sciences, 21(8), 1378-1384. https://doi.org/10.7150/ijms.92837.

ACS

Hirata, R.; Katsuki, N.E.; Yaita, S.; Nakatani, E.; Shimada, H.; Oda, Y.; Tokushima, M.; Aihara, H.; Fujiwara, M.; Tago, M. Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model. Int. J. Med. Sci. 2024, 21 (8), 1378-1384. DOI: 10.7150/ijms.92837.

NLM

CSE

Hirata R, Katsuki NE, Yaita S, Nakatani E, Shimada H, Oda Y, Tokushima M, Aihara H, Fujiwara M, Tago M. 2024. Validation of the Saga Fall Injury Risk Model. Int J Med Sci. 21(8):1378-1384.

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